A secret algorithm decides who will die in America 🇺🇸

Reopening decisions should include general statements and discussion.

have written extensively on the dangers that arise when authorities rely on vague algorithms to make important decisions, bypassing public talks. Often, their statistically apathetic models end up costing lives and livelihoods.

Unfortunately, this seems to be exactly what will happen with the Trump administration's Covid-19 model.

Arizona Governor Doug Douce has announced plans to allow companies to start reopening their doors this week after consulting the new epidemic forecasting agency model, which has not been released to the public. The move came as a shock because a team of university experts - who had developed their own model on behalf of the state - were advised to wait until the end of May, fearing the hospital system would be overwhelmed.

In this book, "Weapons of Destruction of Mathematics," she identified three characteristics that make the predictive algorithm particularly dangerous: it must be important, confidential, and destructive. The new FEMA model has them all. If she can persuade the governor to lift orders to stay home in the middle of a pandemic, then it is important. As of this writing, its details are kept secret. While it remains to be seen what will happen in Arizona, it can destroy many lives by justifying bad decisions.

Such models are not created accidentally. Emerge when people want to avoid a difficult conversation, especially those involving historical conflict, money and complex decisions. Illustrative examples include a model for public school teachers' values, and the "degree of crime risk" algorithms that decide, among other things, who is imprisoned before trial. Both were severely flawed statistical embarrassment aimed at overcoming difficult issues, such as what makes a good teacher who deserves imprisonment. However, governments and companies continue to use black box models, because people - because of fear of math or lack of information - rarely challenge them.

If there is any topic that requires a difficult public conversation, the response to Covid-19 is. How many people do we want to let them die in order to keep companies working? Which people will let it die? By creating a secret model for reporting such decisions, the Trump administration takes these questions out of the public and scientific realms, and replaces data-driven ethical debate with a fake mathematical political tool. This is bad news for science, and potentially terrible news for Arizona residents.